Costs of adaptation to climate change impacts on fresh-water systems: existing estimates and research gaps
Keywords:Adaptation, Climate change, Costs, Freshwater systems
AbstractInformation on the cost of adaptation in freshwater systems is necessary to better design strategies to face climate change and water management. We look at the existing estimates with the aim of identifying research gaps. Our analysis shows that case study-specific literature is scarce, fragmented, and not always methodologically transparent. At the same time, most existing global assessments are likely to represent underestimates and rely heavily on each other. We conclude that a clear conceptual framework is still missing. Remaining research gaps include addressing inter-sector linkages and estimations of other than only direct costs, in addition to addressing the issues of ‘adaptation deficit’ and ‘residual damage’.
Adger, N.W., Dessai, S., Goulden, M., Hulme, M., Lorenzoni, I., Nelson, D.R., Naess, L.I, Wolf, J. and Wreford, A. (2009). “Are there limits to adaptation to climate change?”. Climatic Change, 93: 335-354. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9520-z
Aerts, J.C.J.H., Bowman, M., Dircke, P. Major, D. and Marfai M.A. (2009). Connecting delta cities. About global coastal cities and future challenges. VU University Press, Amsterdam.
Agrawala, S. and Frankhauser, S. (Eds.): (2008). Economic aspects of adaptation to climate change. Costs, benefits and policy instruments. OECD, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264046214-en
Alcamo, J., Flörke, M. and Mörker, M. (2007). “Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes”. Hydrological Sciences, 52(2): 247-275. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.2.247
Arnell, N. (2009). “Cost of adaptation in the water sector”. In Parry et al. (Eds): Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change: a review of the UNFFCC and other recent estimates. International Institute for Environment and Development
and Grantham Institute for Climate Change, London.
Arnell, N.W. (2004). “Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios”. Global Environmental Change, 14(1): 31-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.006
Bates, B.C., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Wu, S. and Palutikof, J.P. (2008). Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland.
Berrittella, M., Hoekstra, A.Y, Rehdanz, K., Roson, R. and Tol, R. (2007). “The economic impact of restricted water supply:A computable general equilibrium analysis”. Water Research, 41(8): 1799-1813. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2007.01.010
Bouwer, H. (2000). “Integrated water management: emerging issues and challenges”. Agricultural Water Management, 45(3): 217-228. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-3774(00)00092-5
Callaway, J.M., Louw, D.B., Knomo, J.C., Hellmuth, M.E. and Sparks, D.A. (2007). The Berg River Dynamic Spatial Equilibrium Model:a new tool for assessing the benefits and costs of alternative coping with water demand growth, climate variability
and climate change in Western Cape. AIACC Working Paper nº 31. www.aiaccproject.org.
Conway, D. (2005). “From head water tributaries to international river: observing and adapting to climate variability and change in the Nile basin”. Global Environmental Change, 15(2): 99-114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.01.003
Copenhagen Accord (2009). Accord on the 15th session of the Conference of Parties (COP 15) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change. Copenhagen, Denmark, 18th December 2009.
Dore, M. and Burton, I. (2001). The costs of adaptation to climate change in Canada: a stratified estimate by sectors and regionsâ€”social infrastructure. St. Catharines: Brock University, Niagara, Canada.
Easterling, W.E., Aggarwal, P.K., Batima, P., Brander, K.M., Erda, L., Howden, S.M., Kirilenko, A., Morton, J., Soussana, J.F., Schmidhuber, J. and Tubiello, F.N. (2007). Food, fibre and forest products. Climate Change 2007:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK: 273-313.
El-Fadel, M. and Maroun, R. (2008). “Virtual water trade as an adaptation demand management of climate change impact on water resources in the Middle East”. In Zereini, F. and Jaeschke, W. (Eds.): Water in the Middle East and in North Africa: Resources, Protection and Management. Berlin, Germany. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-85047-2_9
Eijegeraam, C.J.J.J. (2005). Cost-benefit analysis room for the river. Part 2:cost effectiveness of measures and packages (in Dutch). Netherlands Bureau of Economy Policy Analysis, CPB Document nº 82, April 2005.
Eijegeraam, C.J.J.J. (2006). Optimal safety standards for dike-ring areas. Netherlands Bureau of Economy Policy Analysis, CPB Document nº 62, March 2006.
European Environment Agency EEA. (2007). Climate change: the cost of inaction and the cost of adaptation. EEA Technical Report No. 13/2007. FAO, 2009. The state of world fisheries and aquaculture (2008). FAO Fisheries and
Aquaculture Department, Rome, Italy, ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/i0250e/i0250.pdf.
Falkenmark, M., Berntell, A., Jagerskog, A., Lundqvist, J., Matz, M. and Tropp, H. (2007). On the verge of a new water scarcity:a call for good governance and human ingenuity. SIWI Policy Brief. Stockholm International Water Institute
Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F., Price, J.T., Leemans, R., Gopal, B., Turley, C., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Dube, O.P., Tarazona, J. and Velichko, A.A. (2007). Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability. Contribution of the Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK: 211-272.
Gagnon-Lebrun, F. and Agrawala, S. (2007). “Implementing adaptation in developed countries”. Climate Policy, 7(5): 392-408. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2007.9685664
Gosh, S., Badhwal, S. and Martin-Ortega, J. (2011). “Water Resources”. In Markandya, A. and Mirsha, A. (Eds.): Costing adaptation. preparing for climate change in India. TERI Press, New Delhi.
ICF International and RPA. (2007). The potential costs of climate change adaptation for the water industry. IPCC, report to the UK Environmental Agency, London.
IPCC. Climate Change. (2007). Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, B. Metz, O. Davidson, P. Bosch, R. Dave and L. Meyer,
(Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
IPCC TAR (2001). Climate Change. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC Third Assessment Report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Kabat, P., Van Schaik, H. and Appleton, B. (2003). Climate changes the water rules: How water managers can cope with today’s climate variability and tomorrow’s climate change. Dialogue on Water and Climate. The Netherlands, 105: http://
Kirshen, P., McCluskey, M., Vogel, R. and Strzepek, K. (2005). “Global analysis of changes in water supply yields and costs under climate change: a case study in China”. Climatic Change, 68(3): 303-330. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-1148-7
Kirshen, P. (2007). Adaptation options in water supply. In the UNFCCC Report on the analysis of existing and potential investments and financial flows relevant to the development on an effective and appropriate international response to climate
change. Working paper 8.
Kirshen, P., Ruth, M. and Anderson, W. (2008). “Interdependencies of urban climate change impacts and adaptation strategies: a case study of Metropolitan Boston USA”. Climatic Change, 86(1-2): 105-122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9252-5
Klein, R.W. and MacIver, D. C. (1999). “Adaptation to climate variability and change”. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 4(3-4): 189-98. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009690729283
Kuik, O. (2007). “Room for the River: a case study on the costs of adaptation to climate change in The Netherlands”. In European Environmental Agency Costs of adaptation to climate change: a review of assessment studies with a focus on
methodologies used. EEA under the Framework Contract No EEA/AIR/04/004, Final working paper.
Kummu, M., Ward, P.W., de Moel, H. and Varis, O. (2010). “Is physical water scarcity a new phenomenon? Global assessment of water shortage over the last two millennia”. Environmental Research Letters, 5: 034006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034006
Kundzewicz, Z.W., Mata, L.J., Arnell, N.W., Döll, P., Kabat, P., Jiménez, B., Miller, K.A., Oki, T., Sen, Z. and Shiklomanov, I.A. (2007). “Freshwater resources and their management”. In Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., Van der Linden, P.J. and Hanson, C.E. (Eds.): Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of the Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K: 173-210.
Markandya, A. and Chiabai, A. (2009) “Valuing climate change impacts on human health: empirical evidence from the literature”. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 6(2): 759-786. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph6020759
Medellin-Azuara, J., Harou, J.J., Olivares, M.A., Madani. K., Lund, J.R., Howitt, R.E., Tanka, S.K., Jenkins, M.W. and Zhu, T. (2008). “Adaptability and adaptations of California’s water supply system to dry climate warming”. Climatic Change, 87: 75-90. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9355-z
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MEA (2005). Ecosystems and human wellbeing: biodiversity synthesis. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
Muller, M. (2007). “Adapting to climate change: water management for urban resilience.” Environment and Urbanization, 19(1): 99-112. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247807076726
Oki, T. and Kanae, S. (2006). “Global hydrological cycle and world water resources”. Science, 313(5790): 1068-1072. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128845
Oxfam (2007). Adapting to climate change. What is needed in poor countries and who should pay?. Oxfam Briefing Paper 104, Oxfam, Oxford.
Parry, M., Arnell, N., Berry, P., Dodman, D., Fankhauser, S., Hope, C., Kovats, S., Nichollls, R., Satterhwaite, D., Tiffin, R. and Wheeler, T. (2009). Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change: a review of the UNFCCC and other recent estimates. International Institute for Environment and Development and Grantham Institute for Climate Change, London.
Pielke, R., Prins, G., Rayner, S. and Sarewitz, D. (2007). “Lifting the taboo on adaptation”. Nature, 445(7128): 597-8. https://doi.org/10.1038/445597a
Rayner, T. and Jordan, A. (2010). “Adapting to a changing climate:an emerging European Union policy?”. In Jordan, A., Huitema, D., van Asselt, H., Rayner T. and Berkhout, F. (Eds.). Climate Change Policy in the European Union. Cambridge University Press, Published by Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139042772.009
Schipper, L. (2006). “Conceptual history of adaptation in the UNFCCC process”. Review of European Community and International Environmental Law, 15(1): 82-92. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9388.2006.00501.x
Shen Y., Oki, T., Kanae, N. and Hanasaki, N. (2008). “Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios:water withdrawal”. Hydrological Sciences, 53(1): 11-34. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.53.1.11
Shiklomanov, I.A. (2000) “World water resources and water use: present assessment and outlook for 2025”. In Rijsberman, F.R. (Ed.). World Water Scenarios: Analysis of Global Water Resources and Use. Earthscan, London, UK: 160-203.
Stern, N., Peters, S., Bakhshi, V., Bowen, A., Cameron, C., Catovsky, S., Crane, D., Cruickshank, S., Dietz, S., Edmonon, N., Garbett, S.L., Hamid, L., Hoffman, G., Ingram, D., Hones, B., Patmore, N., Radcliffe, H., Sathiyarajah, R., Stock, N.,
Taylor, C., Vernon, T., Wanjie H. and Zenghelis, D. (2006). Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, London. http://www.hmtreasury. gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_
Swart, R. and Raes, F. (2007). “Making integration of adaptation and mitigation work: mainstreaming into sustainable development policies?”. Climate Policy, 7(4): 288-303. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2007.9685657
UNFCCC (2007). Investment and Financial Flows to Address Climate Change. Climate Change Secretariat, Bonn.
UNDP (2007). Human Development Report 2007/08. Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
Van Ierland, E.C., de Groot, R.S., Kuikman, P.J., Martens, P., Amelung, B., Daan, N., Huijnen, M., Kramer, K., Szönyi, J., Veraart, .J.A., Verhagen, A., van Vliet, A., van Walsum P.E.V. and Westein, E. (2001). Integrated assessment of vulnerability
to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands, NRP-CC.
Van Ierland, E.C., Bruin, K., Dellink, R.B., Ruijs, A. (2006). A qualitative assessment of climate adaptation options and some estimates of adaptation costs. ARK Netherlands Policy Programme, Wageningen.
Vörösmarty, C. J., Green, P., Salisbury, J. and Lammers, R.B. (2000). “Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth”. Science, 289: 284-288. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.284
Ward, P.J., Pauw, P., Brander, L.M., Aerts, J.C.J.H. and Strzepek, K.M. (2010a). Costs of adaptation related to industrial and municipal water supply and riverine flood protection. World Bank. Discussion Paper Number 6 August 2010.
Ward, P.J., Strzepek, K.M., Pauw, W.P., Brander, L.M., Hughes, G.A. and Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2010b). “Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water:a methodology and application”. Environmental Research Letter, 5. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/4/044011
Wilbanks, T.J., Romero Lankao, P., Bao, M., Berkhout, F., Cairncross, S., Ceron, J.P., Kapshe, M., Muir-Wood, R. and Zapata-Marti, R. (2007). Industry, settlement and society. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK: 357-390.
World Bank (2006). Investment framework for clean energy and development: A Progress Report. World Bank, Washington DC.
World Bank (2009). The costs to developing countries of adapting to climate change. New methods and estimates. The Global Report on the economics of adaptation ton climate change Study. Consultation Draft. The World Bank, Washington D.C. 109:
Yang, H., Wang, L. Zehnder, A.J.B. (2007). “Water scarcity and food trade in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries”. Food Policy, 32(5-6): 585-605. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2006.11.004
Zhao, J., Wenhua, L. and Hongbing, D. (2005). “The potential role of virtual water in solving water scarcity and food security problems in China”. The International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 12(4): 419-428. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504500509469651
Zhu, T.J.; Lund, J.R.; Jenkins, M.W.; Marques, G.F. and Ritzema, R.S. (2007). “Climate change, urbanization, and optimal long-term floodplain protection”. Water Resources Research, 43(6): W06435. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004WR003516
This journal is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License