Climate change and food security to 2030: a global economy-wide perspective


  • Ernesto Valenzuela Monash University-Gippsland
  • Kym Anderson University of Adelaide



Climate change, Crop and labor productivity growth, Global economy-wide model projections


The effects of climate change on agriculture raise major food security concerns. We use a global economy-wide model to assess the effects on farm product prices of expected yield changes. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results entail consequences for international agricultural prices, national food consumption, self sufficiency, net farm income and economic welfare.


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Author Biographies

Ernesto Valenzuela, Monash University-Gippsland

School of Business and Economics

Kym Anderson, University of Adelaide

School of Economics


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